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Santitarn Says Inflation `Key Risk’ for Thai Economy
นอกจากการดูบทความนี้แล้ว คุณยังสามารถดูข้อมูลที่เป็นประโยชน์อื่นๆ อีกมากมายที่เราให้ไว้ที่นี่: ดูความรู้เพิ่มเติมที่นี่
July 4 (Bloomberg) Santitarn Sathirathai, a Singaporebased economist at Credit Suisse Group AG, talks about the outcome of Thailand’s election, the country’s economy and currency.
Santitarn speaks with Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Television’s \”On the Move Asia.\” (Source: Bloomberg)
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อัตราคิดลด, Equity Risk Premium, เบต้า, Risk-Free, CAPM, Required rate of return คืออะไร หาจากไหน?
อันนี้เป็นคำถามที่ต่อเนื่องมาจากวีดิโอหัวข้อ Discounted Cash Flow มีคนถามว่าตัวเลข required rate of return on equity ที่ใช้คิดลด 13% นั่นมาจากไหน ในวีดิโอนั่นผมสมมติตัวเลขขึ้นมาเฉยๆครับ ในวีดิโอนี้เรามาคุยกันในรายละเอียดเพิ่มเติมว่าตัวเลขนี้เอามาจากไหน
Link Video Discounted Cash Flow : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GJwSPsFFdWg
สาระสำคัญของตัว required rate of return on equity คือมันเป็นอัตราผลตอบแทนที่ต่ำที่สุดที่นักลงทุนควรจะคาดหวังได้เพื่อให้ยินดีที่จะถือหุ้นนั้นๆ ซึ่งมันก็ควรจะสอดคล้องกับระดับของความเสี่ยงของการถือหุ้นนั้นๆว่างั้นเถอะ ปกติก็จะมีวิธีหลักๆคือ CAPM กับ Multifactor model
1. CAPM
หลักการของ CAPM ก็คือบอกว่า
required rate of return on equity = Risk free rate + (Equity risk premium x Beta)
Risk free rate หรือผลตอบแทนที่ไม่เสี่ยงเลยนี่ก็เอาจากพันธบัตรรัฐบาล http://www.thaibma.or.th/EN/Market/YieldCurve/Government.aspx ปัจจุบันก็ยังมีเถียงกันอยู่ว่าใช้ผลตอบแทนระยะสั้นหรือระยะยาว แต่โดยปกติถ้าเอาไว้คิดลดเงินในอนาคตหลายปีก็จะนิยมใช้ระยะยาวให้สอดคล้องกัน
Equity risk premium หรือก็คือส่วนต่างระหว่างผลตอบแทนของตลาดหุ้นโดยรวมกับผลตอบแทนที่ไม่เสี่ยงเลย มันมีวิธีได้มาหลักๆอยู่ 2 แบบคือใช้ Historical (ข้อมูลจริงดูย้อนหลัง) หรือไม่ก็ใช้ ForwardLooking (คาดการณ์อนาคต) ซึ่งเอาจริงๆเราทำเองยากเพราะก็ไม่มีข้อมูลหรือไม่ก็ต้องนั่งเดาตัวแปรซึ่งลำบากชีวิต เราใช้ที่คนอื่นทำไว้แล้วละกัน อันนี้เป็นของคุณ Aswath Damodaran http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/ctryprem.html
Beta หรือก็คือหุ้นที่เราดูอยู่โดยเฉลี่ยแล้วมีการขยับอย่างไรเมื่อเทียบกับตลาด CAPM มองตัวนี้เป็นตัวบ่งชี้ว่าหุ้นเสี่ยงมากกว่าหรือน้อยกว่าตลาดโดยเฉลี่ย หาได้โดยการทำ Regression ซึ่งเราคงไม่ทำเอง ไปดูได้บนเวป www.investing.com หรือ www.morningstar.com ก็ได้ สองอันนี้น่าจะเป็นข้อมูลรายเดือนระยะเวลา 5 ปีทั้งคู่
ในตัวอย่างเราได้ว่า required rate of return ของ CPALL = 1.56%+(6.77%x0.78) = 6.84%
2. Multifactor model
อันนี้มันก็มีขึ้นมาหลังจากเค้าพบว่าการใช้ Beta ของ CAPM มันยังสะท้อนความเสี่ยงของหุ้นได้ไม่สมบูรณ์ก็เลยมีคนพยายามหาตัวแปรอื่นๆเข้ามา ที่ดังก็จะมี FamaFrench คือใช้ตัวแปร 3 ตัวคือ Equity risk premium, smallcap risk premium กับ value premium ซึ่งผมก็ไม่รู้ว่าถ้าจะต้องทำจริงๆจะเอาข้อมูลมาจากไหนนะ
จะเห็นได้ว่าการหา required rate of return on equity เอาจริงๆก็ไม่ได้มีวิธีการเดียวที่ชัดเจนขนาดนั้น ดังนั้นก็อย่างที่บอกแหละว่าการประมาณมูลค่าของบริษัทยังไงมันก็ไม่มีวิธีไหนแม่น เราต้องเข้าใจข้อจำกัดมันและใช้มันให้ถูกต้องในฐานะเครื่องมือในการกะอย่างคร่าวๆครับ
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